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How should the world reduce
the risk of temperature overshoot?


The average global temperature in 2022

Credit: WMO 2023 Report


Of at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record


Says that climate-related risks for natural and human systems are higher for global warming of 1.5 °C than at present, but lower than at 2 °C


Every extra tenth of a degree and every extra decade of overshoot matter. Greater warming adds to the serious negative impacts on ecosystems and people, especially the most vulnerable, and increases the likelihood of crossing critical planetary boundaries.

Approaches to Reducing Risks from Climate Overshoot

These approaches should be researched and evaluated so that well-informed decisions can be made. Governance is crucial, and should be effective, just, and equitable. But current arrangements are inadequate.

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Boosting greenhouse gas emissions reductions

Greatly expanded and accelerated adaptation measures to reduce climate vulnerability

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Removing excess carbon dioxide from the atmosphere

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Possibly cooling the planet by reflecting incoming sunlight.

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Scaling up climate finance especially for developing countries

The Report

Reducing the Risks of Climate Change

  • The risk of climate overshoot – that is, of exceeding the Paris Agreement goal of limiting average global warming to 1.5°C – is high and rising, and with it the risk of worsening impacts on human health, food security, water availability, social stability, and ecosystems.

  • People worldwide would welcome a safer, cleaner, more equitable world. All countries could, and should, act now to help bring about such a world.

  • The CARE agenda offers an integrated set of recommendations for achieving this by

    • Cutting emissions of greenhouse gasses

    • Adapting to the unavoidable impacts of climate change

    • Removing carbon from the atmosphere

    • Exploring solar radiation modification



  • The purpose of the Commission is to consider the potential benefits, opportunities, and risks of a wide range of climate action approaches to minimize further increases in global temperatures and to reduce and manage the heightened risk of overshoot.

  • Its goal is to produce an integrated strategy for reducing the probability of breaching the Paris Agreement’s goals, and limiting and managing the risks brought about by an overshoot should it take place. 

Why We Came Together

The world needs to understand all the options available to limit climate risk


In Paris, the governments of the world agreed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5°C:


IPCC concludes that it is alnost inevitable that we will temporarily exceed this 1.5°C:


The Global Commission on Governing Risks From Climate Overshoot release their groundbreaking report in September 2023

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Members include former heads of government, national ministers, directors of intergovernmental organizations, leaders of environmental groups, and academic experts.


Commissioners come from twelve different countries, with a balance between North and South. 



The Commission is the first high-level group to address all these options in a holistic, integrated manner, free from conventional political constraints. 

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